Sunday, October 02, 2005

Ice cream sales have been found to track murder rates,

increasing going into summer and decreasing again heading into fall. Does ice cream contain some malevolent psychotropic ingredient that drives people to turn on their fellow 'sicle suckers? Do murderes, between disposing of bodies and bleaching down the crime scene, run out to grab some Ben and Jerry's to cool off a bit, clear the mind, and avoid some of those 25 mistakes they might otherwise make?

Clearly, the answer is none of the above. This example is an oldie, but a goodie, and while it's ridiculous enough that most people wouldn't accept either of the proposed explanations, most instances of this type of comparison involve items with a little more plausible connection. The result? An almost inevitable conclusion of causation before the story's through.

Of course, correlation does not rule out causation; it simply doesn't establish it. We won't be giving many answers here, but we'll be looking at alternate explanations, and reiterating the point, again and again, that correlation is not causation.

If you see any examples out there, send them in and we'll take a look.

Oh, and in the example above? It's a third factor - the heat of summer brings people out of doors and into more frequent contact, increasing the desire for ice cream, and the opportunity for savagery.

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